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Speaker: Carl Spetzler (Strategic Decisions Group)

Abstract:

Lead additives to enhance the octane level of gasoline were still legal. However, Standard Oil of Indiana (later Amoco) had acquired an oil company that produced high octane unleaded “white” gas. Should we introduce such unleaded gas nationwide? This was a huge decision with highly uncertain consequences. It had already been analyzed a number of times and a new president wished to resolve the question once and for all. He commissioned a major study team that evaluated 11 scenarios in great depth. Then added a Decision Analysis in the last month. This provided a great comparison between traditional methods and DA.