Scenario Thinking for Supply Chain Strategy Development

  • Authors: Sam Vardy (Decision Frameworks)

  • Co-Author: Sri Vaidyanathan (Shell)

  • Abstract:

In an increasingly unpredictable world, scenario thinking is a crucial tool for developing robust supply chain strategies. The global landscape is characterized by uncertainty, with factors such as geopolitical tensions, technological disruptions, climate change, and pandemics, all of which can significantly impact supply chains. Scenario thinking allows us to anticipate and prepare for a range of possible futures, rather than betting on a single predicted outcome. By considering multiple scenarios, supply chain strategists can identify common elements across different futures and build flexible strategies that can withstand various eventualities. This approach enhances resilience, ensuring supply chains can adapt and thrive amidst uncertainty. Therefore, understanding and applying scenario development and thinking can be incredibly valuable for successful supply chain strategy development.