Day 2 Agenda

April 17, 2024

The information presented in this publication, including but not limited to the 2024 SDP Annual Conference agenda, is subject to change without prior notice. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and timeliness of the details provided, unforeseen circumstances, scheduling adjustments, or other factors beyond our control may impact the final agenda.

Attendees are advised to regularly check the official conference website, communication channels, and announcements for the most up-to-date information. SDP reserves the right to modify, add, or remove sessions, speakers, or any other aspects of the conference program as deemed necessary.

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April 17, 2024 8:30am - April 17, 2024 9am

April 17, 2024 8am - April 17, 2024 8:30am

Congratulations to the 2023 DAS/SDP Practice Award Winner!

The Decision Analysis Practice Award is sponsored jointly by the Decision Analysis Society and the...

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Session 1

AI / Analytics

April 17, 2024

Co-Presenting: Luis Mendoza (Decision Frameworks) & Ellen Coopersmith (Decision Frameworks)

Abstract:

What is the true cost of a plant turnaround? How can we better inform our decision when selecting a plant turnaround strategy?

Plant turnarounds are scheduled plant shutdowns in which preventive maintenance and equipment upgrades are conducted in order to ensure safe and compliant operation, improve competitiveness, etc. Teams are often tasked to think strategically about which improvements, beyond the required maintenance, will better position the company to gain competitive advantage and thrive in changing market conditions. However, this strategic thinking often focuses on qualitative multi-attribute analysis to reach consensus and ignores probabilistic quantitative...

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April 17, 2024

Speaker: Tony Kenck (Practical Portfolio Management)

Abstract:

Implementing portfolio management in an organization, whether as a one-off study or an ongoing practice, is challenging. One daunting aspect involves selecting the best choice of portfolio analysis method.

Multiple definitions of portfolio analysis exist—whether standalone analysis, ranking by a single variable, multi-axis graphs and bubble charts, simulation, or optimization all the way to stochastic optimization. I will describe and explain a framework tied to decision quality to help drive productive discussions and expectations.

Twenty-plus years ago, many portfolio practitioners believed that only three factors were needed to enable portfolio management: data, computing power, and visualization. My framework adds two more elements: frame and management commitment. The framework is similar...

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Org Transformation

April 17, 2024

Speaker: Tyler Ludlow (Decision Skills Institute)

Abstract:

Decision Analysis / Decision Quality / Decision Science (DA/DQ/DS) has a long, rich history in the biopharmaceutical industry:

  • In the early to mid 90’s companies began applying it to project and portfolio strategies.
  • Several companies established internal decision expertise groups.
  • Some of those groups have lived on for 25+ years; 2 have received the SDP’s Raiffa-Howard Award.
  • Other groups have come and gone, and even re-started, over the past 30 years.
  • To date, over 20 companies in the industry have invested in creating an internal decision expertise group.

This session will present insights gained from a benchmarking survey of many of these internal groups. Standard benchmarking efforts typically define specific data points, then collect that data from participants, and...

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April 17, 2024

Speakers: Lan Ding (GSK) and Co-presenting Eric Johnson (GSK)

Abstract:

Regulatory approval plays a pivotal role in drug development, yet reliance on aggregate industry approval rates can mask compound-specific risks. To guide more informed decision-making, GSK pioneered a robust framework that systematically captures regulatory risks and opportunities on a customized, per program basis.

Spearheaded by Lan, a cross-functional team spanning statistics, decision science and global regulatory leaders overcame organizational barriers to design the new evaluation framework. Implementation required persuading stakeholders to adopt more granular, data-driven risk evaluation despite fundamental changes to existing processes.

The session will detail learnings from the 12-month journey. How...

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April 17, 2024

Moderator: Leslie Lippard (Alnylam Pharmaceuticals)

Panelists: Terry Karner (Astellas Pharma), Charles Persinger (Eli Lilly), Jim Driscoll

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Innovation

April 17, 2024

Speaker: Kristen Harmon (University of Hawai'i at Mānoa)

Abstract:

With hundreds of species at risk and on the brink of extinction, conservation practitioners must decide where to focus effort and which conservation actions to implement given limited funds. Decision processes that aim to maximize conservation benefit for a given cost should address complementarity of actions to ensure that species in low-diversity habitats are not excluded, and both cost and effectiveness of different actions across taxonomic groups. To address this need we modified a Priority Threat Management approach to guide resource allocation decisions for the conservation of biodiversity in Maui Nui (the islands of Maui, Moloka‘i, Lāna‘i, and Kahoʻolawe). Over a series of online meetings and in-person workshops, species experts and conservation managers contributed: (1) key threats to sensitive species; (2) management strategies to...

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April 17, 2024

Speaker: Ashley Goode (University of Florida)

Abstract:

Species status assessments are used to inform U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) decision-making for Endangered Species Act (ESA) classification decisions, recovery planning, and more. The large number of species that require assessment and uncertainty in the data available impede the process of assigning and completing the assessments, which makes creating a multi-year work plan extremely difficult. An optimized triaging system that maximizes the use of the best available information, while managing the complex ESA workload and meeting deadlines, is necessary. We used a structured decision-making framework to approach the problem with the goal of creating a prioritization tool that would be effective at scheduling assessments, given the best information available and priorities of the Service. We collected data on the species awaiting assessment and...

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April 17, 2024

Speaker: Jonathan Cummings (US Fish & Wildlife Services)

Abstract:

In the absence of information about risk and without any consideration of risk tolerance, when making a risk management decision, individuals could reasonably select any action from a set of possible actions. Their 'decision space' is not in any way limited in this circumstance. However, a risk assessment or a determination of risk tolerance should make some possible actions less reasonable than others, which constricts the decision space available to decision makers. To help decision makers understand the role of a risk assessment and risk tolerance in risk management decisions, I developed an interactive R Shiny application that displays reasonable decision space. The decision space is modified by inputs of risk assessment (from scientific assessments or expert elicitation) and inputs of risk tolerance (from policy makers or decision...

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April 17, 2024

Speaker: Laura Brandt (U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service)

Abstract:

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Session 2

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Innovation

April 17, 2024

Speaker: Dave Debacker (Open Options)

Abstract:

This presentation will focus on the practical application of Game Theory to complex, multi-stakeholder, strategic decision-making. This session will be applicable to both technical and non-technical streams/attendees.

Using past project examples, Christa & Dave will share their thoughts on the experience and insights generated by using a preference-based game theory approach when dealing with highly complex, intractable problems. This involves using proven analytical methods and tools to consider the actions and reactions of key stakeholders - these could be competitors, regulators, customers, partners, suppliers, or any other party with the ability to materially impact a situation. It is important to note that this is a qualitative approach driven by challenging and constructive discussion, not cash flow modeling. The speakers will touch on the unique...

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AI / Analytics

April 17, 2024

Speaker: Harrison Miller (Alnylam Pharmaceuticals)

Abstract:

Probabilities of success are a key assessment for decision analytic strategy and portfolio models in drug development. Various studies have analyzed historical data using different methodologies and different data sets, but many of these are significantly out of date or are based on limited data sets. This talk will review an attempt to reproduce a landmark paper with a comprehensive, up-to-date data set, and will highlight several key learnings about the nuances, methodologies, data sets, changes over time, and how/when this information can be best leveraged in the context of drug development decision making.

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April 17, 2024

Speaker: Shaun Comfort (Genentech, Inc.)

Abstract:

Various industries generate forecasts to facilitate portfolio investments and decision-making. Typical examples in pharma include binary probability of success estimates for clinical trials and peak sales estimates. The vast majority of these forecasts are generated using subject matter experts and/or quantitative models using detailed information about the project(s) under consideration. From the Heuristics and Biases perspective, these forecasts are based on an “inside view” of projects resulting in predictions that are non-regressive and miscalibrated, relative to actual outcomes. In 1977, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky published a paper outlining a simple corrective procedure for combining inside-view forecasts with distributional data from relevant outcomes, to produce plausible forecasts that are closer to actual results. This approach termed has been...

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Org Transformation

April 17, 2024

Speakers: Michelle Hilleary & Hal Cardwell (University of Florida)

Abstract:

Collaboration in water resources management in the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) has benefited from sustained strategic investment and network nurturing. Recent policy directives to look more comprehensively across categories of benefits are moving the Corps to employ more multi-objective decision making techniques in the tradeoffs analysis step of the Civil Works planning process. Applying collaborative techniques in tradeoffs analyses will facilitate better decision-making and increased realization of benefits in the public sphere.

The Corps’ Institute for Water Resources (IWR) was created in 1969 to analyze and anticipate changing water resources management conditions, and to develop...

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April 17, 2024

Speaker: Leah Sharpe (US Environmental Protection Agency)

Abstract:

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Superfund program is responsible for the assessment, cleanup, and reuse of some of the most contaminated sites in the United States. The primary goal of Superfund work is to protect human health and the environment and the work itself is regulatorily and legislatively proscribed. While the concept of ecosystem services (ES; i.e., the benefits that humans receive from nature) is not a part of Superfund processes, the EPA identified potential connections between ES concepts and remediation and redevelopment of contaminated sites in 2009 and has been applying those concepts in cleanups for over a decade. In addition to regulatory hurdles, the organizational separation of those developing ES tools and those responsible for managing Superfund sites was another challenge to the incorporation of ES...

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April 17, 2024

Speaker: Angela Romito, Max Post Van der Burg (The Division of Natural Resources & Conservation Planning)

Abstract:

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April 17, 2024

Speaker: Jennifer Graham (USGS)

Abstract:

Cyanobacteria increasingly are a global water-quality concern because of the potential for these organisms to develop harmful blooms that affect ecologic, economic, and public health. Cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms (CyanoHABs) can lead to a decrease in water quality and may affect the recreational and ecological benefits of parks that include lakes. The New York State Office of Parks, Recreation and Historic Preservation (OPRHP) is a state agency charged with the operation of state parks and historic sites. Many New York State parks include lakes or other freshwater bodies, which can be susceptible to CyanoHABs. The OPRHP faces difficult decisions regarding prevention of and response to CyanoHABs. Decision analysis is often used to inform complex decisions regarding natural resource management. Structured decision making (SDM) breaks down complex decisions into...

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Session 3

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Org Transfromation

April 17, 2024

Co-Presenting: Christa Roemkens, Mike Benefiel & Ellen Vernotzy (Chevron)

Abstract:

Creating a sustainable decision making culture is a continuous work-in-progress. Just as businesses and industries evolve to adapt to changing drivers, so the decision making culture must adapt too. It is shaped as much by a company's specific culture as by the trends in general and project management philosophy. Inevitably, components put in place with the best intentions take on a life of their own and can become obstacles rather than enablers of efficient and effective decision making. The response is often to blame the tools, rather than how they are being used -...

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April 17, 2024

Speaker: Alison Zabik (Exxon Mobil)

Abstract:

As Decision professionals, we are designers. We craft and shape the elements of decision quality to support decision makers and stakeholders, in pursuit of organizational objectives. Decision professionals are obligated therefore to design and customize decision processes in support of the human needs of the decision maker and in consideration of the organizational behavior context of the enterprise.

This talk will translate behavioral economics literature into a decision quality practice. Focus will be on practical techniques that incorporate academic insights, such as mental accounting, time discounting and choice bracketing, into the day-to-day practice of decision quality. This talk will also briefly touch on organizational context ideas, translating insights from public policy literature to applications of decision quality practice in a multinational oil...

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Innovation

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AI / Analytics

April 17, 2024

Moderator: Laura Brandt (U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service)

Panelist: Julien Martin (USGS), Katrina Alger (USGS) & Beaumont Vance (WestCap)

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Interactive Session

April 17, 2024

"Send out the Spies"

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Interactive Session

April 17, 2024 5pm - April 17, 2024 7pm

By Early-Career Professionals in the field of Decision Analysis or Related Disciplines

April 17, 2024 5:30pm - April 17, 2024 6:30pm

April 17, 2024 7pm - April 17, 2024 10pm

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